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The degree to which a system, population, or resource is or might be affected by hazards. Risk also generally increases with proximity to floodways.
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Warehouses sited on a floodplain represent a higher risk for flooding when they are filled with products than when they are empty. Risk can be assessed by multiplying the probability of a hazard by the magnitude of the negative consequence or loss. In the context of the assessment of climate impacts, the term risk is often used to refer to the potential for adverse consequences of a climate-related hazard. The potential for negative consequences where something of value is at stake. Installation of backflow preventers in the stormwater systems of a coastal city increased their resilience to flooding from extreme high tides. The capacity of a community, business, or natural environment to prevent, withstand, respond to, and recover from a disruption. Projections are based on sets of assumptions about the future (scenarios) that may or may not be realized.Ĭlimate projections indicate that if human emissions of heat-trapping gases continue increasing through 2100 (a scenario, or possible future), most locations will see substantial increases in average annual temperature (potential future conditions). Potential future climate conditions calculated by computer-based models of the Earth system. Locations within a 100-year flood zone have a greater probability for a flood hazard than locations in the same region’s 500-year flood zone. With changing climate and the introduction of non-climate stressors, the probability of hazard events also changes. Probabilities have traditionally been determined from the historic frequency of events. The likelihood of hazard events occurring. Population growth along exposed coasts is another non-climate stressor. Processes that can reduce the amount and speed of future climate change by reducing emissions of heat-trapping gases or removing them from the atmosphere.Ĭarbon-neutral energy sources such as solar and wind represent mitigation efforts.Ī change or trend unrelated to climate that can exacerbate hazards.Īltering drainage patterns and replacing open land with roads and buildings are non-climate stressors for flooding hazards. In the West, the destruction of homes by wildfires is among the impacts of hotter and drier conditions and earlier snowmelt. Evaluating potential impacts is a critical step in assessing vulnerability. Homes and businesses along low-lying coasts are exposed to coastal flooding from storms.Īn event or condition that may cause injury, illness, or death to people or damage to assets.Įxtended periods of excessive heat are likely to be an increasingly common hazard in the coming decades.Įffects on natural and human systems that result from hazards. The presence of people, assets, and ecosystems in places where they could be adversely affected by hazards. Ecosystems also filter water and air, sequester carbon, and provide recreation and inspiration for people. Humans draw food and fiber from ecosystems. The destruction of commercial buildings in a flood event could result in the consequence of reduced tax revenues for a community.īenefits that humans receive from natural systems. Quantifying potential consequences is an important part of determining risk. Rising sea level is another climate stressor.Ī subsequent result (usually negative) that follows from damage to or loss of an asset. Increasing frequency and intensity of drought conditions can be a climate stressor for forests and crops. A community’s local “charm” is an example of an intangible asset.Ī condition, event, or trend related to climate variability and change that can exacerbate hazards. The service of supply chain stability (supported by transportation infrastructure) is an asset. The infrastructure of roads, airports, and seaports are assets. Assets are the tangible and intangible things people or communities value. People, resources, ecosystems, infrastructure, and the services they provide. Increasing the diameter of culverts that channel stormwater away from assets enhances the adaptive capacity of places that face flooding from increasingly heavy rainfalls. The ability of a person, asset, or system to adjust to a hazard, take advantage of new opportunities, or cope with change. Using smaller amounts of water during times of drought is an example of behavioral adaptation. Relocating buildings out of flood plains or further inland from rising seas are examples of physical adaptations. The process of adjusting to new (climate) conditions in order to reduce risks to valued assets.